On 1 September 2026, the South African Weather Service (SAWS) has warned that the country should prepare for a very strong El Niño event this summer, an event that belongs on the mind of a supply chain professional as much as a farmer.

Over one season, three things come under pressure at once: what businesses can source, what it costs to keep products cold, and how much power the country’s cooling systems draw. Rainfall and temperature forecasts shape procurement, storage and transport decisions months before they show up in a harvest figure.

IMM Graduate School teaches supply chain managers to read them that way. This is part of a broader supply chain resilience mindset: identifying exposure early, understanding how disruptions can propagate across the supply chain, and designing options before they are needed.

What SAWS published on 1 September

Sea surface temperatures in the east-central tropical Pacific are very likely to exceed 3°C above normal, which SAWS says could make this the strongest El Niño event in living memory.

For October to December 2026, below-normal rainfall is the most likely outcome over most of South Africa, alongside above-normal temperatures, and the outlook for November 2026 to January 2027 is very similar (South African Weather Service seasonal forecast, SAnews, 1 September 2026). That outlook lands on South African supply chains as much as on South African farms.

The forecast signals increased risk, rather than a guaranteed drought, and businesses should monitor updates as the season develops.

Cold storage carries the next cost

Higher ambient temperatures raise the cost of holding a set temperature and tighten how long products can sit in transit. Dr Ernst van Biljon, Dean of Research at IMM Graduate School, explains:

“The less visible issue is that prolonged heat progressively reduces the thermal headroom of the cold chain… The consequence is therefore not simply a larger electricity bill. It can mean higher maintenance requirements, greater generator or fuel use, reduced equipment reliability, temperature excursions, shortened product shelf life and ultimately higher spoilage or rejection risk.”

Prolonged heat reduces the margin for handling delays or doors left open, increasing the risk of spoiled stock or rejected deliveries.

Cooling demand climbs in two places at once

Sustained heat lifts cooling load in two places at once: across the national grid, and inside every cold store and refrigerated vehicle in the same week. The grid goes into this summer with more room than it has had in years.

Eskom recorded 476 days without load shedding and a year-to-date energy availability factor of 67.79%, its highest level since 2020 (Eskom winter performance update, 4 September 2026). That headroom helps absorb additional cooling demand, but businesses still need to plan for local electricity disruptions and equipment failures.

When the backup plan is under the same weather

A contingency plan is more reliable when its alternatives are not exposed to the same risks. When the alternative supplier, the backup transport route and the spare cold store are all sitting under the same forecast, the substitutions can fail. IMM Graduate School’s Dr van Biljon puts it this way:

“A business may have a second supplier, another transport route or alternative storage capacity, but if both options depend on the same rainfall area, electricity system, water source, transport corridor or upstream supplier, they can fail at the same time… A backup exposed to the same risk is duplication, not genuine diversification. That distinction lies at the heart of supply chain resilience.

“Resilience is not simply having a Plan B; it is creating the capacity to absorb disruption, adapt as conditions change and continue operating when several parts of the system are under pressure at the same time.”

Planning across a season rather than a single incident

Four practical moves can help businesses plan for disruption across a whole season. The first is scenario planning for the full season, rather than a single event. The second is buffer stock assessed against holding costs, shelf life, storage capacity and the potential cost of a supply failure.

The third is supplier diversification that gets tested for shared exposure, not just counted. The fourth is agreeing contract terms before the season starts, with clear provisions for managing supply disruptions.

Taken together, these are not merely contingency measures; they are ways of building resilience into the supply chain before disruption occurs.

Studying supply chain risk at postgraduate level

Asked what separates businesses that come through a season like this in decent shape from those that do not, Dr van Biljon points to timing and testing:

“The strongest businesses tend to act before the disruption becomes an operational crisis. They translate a seasonal forecast into scenarios for supply availability, inventory, energy, water, transport and storage… Ultimately, the difference is between businesses that have a contingency plan and those that have built resilience into the supply chain itself.”

IMM Graduate School offers three postgraduate qualifications that build this kind of capability. The Postgraduate Diploma in Supply Chain Management is an NQF Level 8, 120-credit qualification (SAQA ID 125997), Council on Higher Education (CHE) quality assured, and completed over one year full-time or two years part-time.

Three of its seven modules speak directly to a season like this one: Sustainability and Risk Management in Supply Chains, Applied Supply Chain Management, and Applied Procurement and Strategic Sourcing, with the Applied Supply Chain Project giving students the option to work through their own employer’s exposure.

Across these modules, students are encouraged to move beyond identifying individual risks and to consider how supply chains can be structured, governed and managed to remain resilient under multiple, overlapping disruptions.

The BCom Honours in Supply Chain Management (NQF Level 8, SAQA ID 117085, CHE quality assured, one year full-time or two years part-time) covers costing buffers and cold chain energy in Advanced Cost Management, and where a chain breaks in Advanced Supply Chain Business Processes. The Master of Commerce in Supply Chain Management (NQF Level 9, 180 credits, SAQA ID 124669, CHE quality assured, 18 months full-time or two years part-time) closes the pathway with a dissertation and a publishable article.

Applicants for the Postgraduate Diploma and BCom Honours need a recognised three-year NQF Level 7 qualification, a CV and a motivational letter.

The MCom asks for an NQF Level 8 qualification with a 60% average, a research discussion document, and an interview with the Postgraduate Studies Committee. Readers earlier in their studies can start with the BCom in International Supply Chain Management (NQF Level 7, 360 credits), accredited by the Chartered Institute of Logistics and Transport (CILT), with a Transport and Logistics or Procurement stream.

Where to start

Preparing for El Niño requires informed decisions about sourcing, storage and supply continuity. Explore IMM Graduate School’s postgraduate supply chain qualifications to develop your capability in managing these risks.