IMM Graduate School Supply Chain Expert Provides Authoritative Insight on the Impact of the Middle East Conflict
South Africa and Global Supply Chains Face Continued Geopolitical Shock
Between late February and early April 2026, Dr Ernst van Biljon, Head Lecturer in Supply Chain Management and head of the MCom Supply Chain programme at the IMM Graduate School, has been widely cited in national and international media for his expert analysis of how the Iran–US/Israel conflict is affecting global supply chains, commodity prices, and South Africa’s economy and citizens.
His insights have been republished and shared across mainstream and specialised outlets, demonstrating his role as an expert commentator on supply‑chain risk and economic implications.
Key Media Commentary by Dr Ernst van Biljon
Global energy markets and shipping disruption
In Business Report – “Oil retreats as Middle East tensions ease, but supply chain risks remain” (10 March 2026) Dr van Biljon explained how volatility in global energy prices quickly spreads through the logistics system. He said higher oil costs raise transport and freight charges, which in turn increase the cost of moving goods across continents and regions and feed into consumer prices.
He noted that for economies like South Africa, which is a net oil importer, rising global oil prices “quickly translate into higher fuel costs locally, placing strain on distribution networks, agricultural supply chains and retail logistics”. He additionally warned that supply disruptions could cause fuel shortages if companies do not plan ahead.
This article has been directly republished in at least three finance and industry newsletters, and excerpts have appeared on MSN News and other syndicated feeds.
Currency volatility and imported inflation
In IOL Business – “How the Iran conflict is affecting oil prices and the South African rand” (3 March 2026) Dr van Biljon noted that the rand could weaken further in a “flight to safety” environment, compounding imported inflation for South African households and firms. He emphasised that a weaker currency paired with rising global oil prices intensifies cost pressures for domestic consumers.
This piece has been shared by at least two national business aggregators and was featured in African News Agency feeds.
Oil price shocks and inflation risk
In Business Report – “Iran war rattles rand as oil surge sparks fuel price warning” (2 March 2026) he said that “a 10% rise in oil quickly filters into higher fuel prices, placing upward pressure on transport costs, food inflation and ultimately consumer spending”. He highlighted South Africa’s exposure due to its status as a net oil importer with already‑high interest rates.
This report has been republished or excerpted in at least three aggregation and finance news services, including Persfin and Joburg Etc.
Longer‑term outlook and structural resilience
In Business Report – “Far‑away war hits home as South Africans feel the pinch in their pockets” (7 March 2026) he discussed the longer‑term implications. He said if sanctions on Iran were eased and its oil returned to global markets, supply pressures could ease and bring some downward price pressure.
However, he stressed that repeated shocks underline the importance of diversified energy sources, more resilient logistics networks, and strategic fuel reserves for South Africa.
This analysis has been shared by at least two national business and policy newsletters.
Export logistics and perishable goods disruption
In Bastille Post Global – “South Africa’s fruit export hit by US‑Israeli war on Iran” (27 March 2026) he explained how disruptions in key shipping routes have affected South African export logistics, particularly perishable fruit shipments to the Middle East. He noted that around 90 % of fruit containers bound for the region were disrupted, illustrating the cascading impact of geopolitical risk on supply chains.
This report has since been echoed by at least three additional agriculture and export news services, with similar figures cited.
Thematic Analysis of Dr van Biljon’s Commentary
Energy‑linked supply‑chain shocks
Across all media, Dr van Biljon stressed that even perceived disruption in crucial corridors such as the Strait of Hormuz can introduce risk premiums into energy and shipping markets, spiking shipping costs and insurance premiums, and raising global input costs.
He repeatedly observed that higher oil prices first hit energy‑intensive industries (manufacturing, transport, food systems) and then feed into inflation and household costs in import‑dependent economies such as South Africa.
Domestic economic vulnerability
He emphasised that as a net oil importer with high import dependence and limited buffer capacity, South Africa is particularly vulnerable to global shocks. Higher fuel prices and transport costs place immediate pressure on household budgets and business logistics networks, and can delay interest rate relief by monetary authorities.
Structural resilience and diversification
In his longer‑term commentary, Dr van Biljon consistently highlighted that geopolitical instability demands supply chain diversification, stronger logistics infrastructure, and strategic planning to enhance economic resilience. For South Africa, this includes diversified energy sources, renewable uptake, strategic reserves, and redesigned transport and logistics planning.
Implications for South Africa
For South African citizens and businesses, Dr van Biljon’s expert analysis points chiefly to higher living costs, including fuel, transport and food inflation, and greater uncertainty in the policy outlook.
His warnings about logistics bottlenecks and export disruptions also signal potential supply delays or cost increases in essential goods and agricultural exports, with particular stress on perishable supply chains such as fruit.
*UPDATE 9 April Dr van Biljon on The Money Show
In this clip from The Money Show on 9 April 2026, Dr Ernst van Biljon joins Stephen Grootes to offer a timely lens on shifting global dynamics in light of the US–Iran ceasefire announced that same day.
Set against this fragile pause in tensions, the discussion unpacks what such developments mean for vital trade routes like the Strait of Hormuz and the broader impact on global supply chains.
From rising insurance costs to rerouted shipping and ongoing uncertainty, it highlights how quickly geopolitical events can influence the flow of goods and the cost of doing business worldwide.
As disruption becomes more frequent, the need for informed, strategic supply chain thinking continues to grow.
Listen to the full discussion below
A Trusted Voice on Supply Chain
Dr Ernst van Biljon’s media presence on this topic highlights how his specialised supply chain expertise enables clear explanation of complex global events and their domestic consequences.
Across multiple respected platforms and syndicated news services, he has been quoted reliably on inflation risk, logistics disruption, currency effects, and structural resilience, making him a key expert voice for South African and international audiences.
His commentary reinforces the IMM Graduate School’s role in producing applied academic thought leadership that directly informs public debate on critical economic forces.
Dr van Biljon’s insights have not only reached readers of Business Report and IOL Business, but have also been republished across multiple national and industry outlets, including MSN News, African News Agency, Personal Finance (Persfin) African Farming and Joburg Etc., amplifying the IMM Graduate School’s thought leadership in supply chain management, economic commentary, and applied business research.
Read a selection of Dr Ernst van Biljon’s thought leadership pieces on the IMM Graduate School blog and other third-party publishers.
SA-US Trade: Tariffs, AGOA, and the Shifting Global Landscape
From Aisles to Algorithms: Rewiring SA’s Supply Chains in the Omnichannel Revolution
Why the Next Supply Chain Superpower Could Be African…And Should It Not Be South Africa?
Prost! But Can They Deliver? A Look at the Oktoberfest Supply Chain Challenge